Takeda: Portfolio analysis
Therapeutic focus
Takeda's largest franchise, and one of the fastest growing in the short-term, is diabetes and endocrinology. Sales reached $ 1,671m in 2002, representing 26.3% of the company's consolidated ethical sales. Actos dominated this franchise in 2002, with sales of $ 1,240m, but its sales will decline by 2008 as the glitazone class becomes less popular and the drug loses patent protection in 2006. Takeda has achieved strong growth for Actos primarily through international sales, which are boosted by a co-marketing agreement with Lilly in the US. Takeda's therapeutic focus is illustrated in the pie chart below.Major marketed products
The table below summarizes sales of Takeda's leading products. Those with greatest future commercial potential are discussed in more detail in the following paragraphs.Actos (pioglitazone hydrochloride)
Actos is a member of the glitazone family, a class of antidiabetic drugs with a novel mode of action that treats the underlying causes of the disease rather than just the symptoms. Glitazones are thiazolidincdiones and are highly selective peroxisome proliferator activated receptor gamma (PPARy) agonists. Activation of this receptor leads to the increased transcription of genes involved in the insulin response, which results in greater control of glucose and fatty acid metabolism.
Actos is approved for use both as a monotherapy and in combination with insulin, sulphonylureas and Bristol-Myers Squibb's Glucophage (metformin). Research suggests that the drug offers significant therapeutic benefits, not only in terms of improved glycemic control of type II diabetes, but also in lowering the plasma levels of lipids. In contrast to other compounds within the same class, Actos has not been shown to raise levels of LDL-cholesterol, an adverse marker of cardiovascular disease. Actos was launched in Japan in December 1999 and received fast track approval from the FDA in July 1999. In the US the drug is co-marketed by TPNA and Lilly. In March 2000, Takeda announced an agreement with Abbott Laboratories that gave Abbott exclusive rights to market Actos in nine Latin American countries. In October 2000, Takeda received European marketing authorization for Actos. Actos was approved in June 2002 in Japan for the additional indication of concomitant use with an alfa glucosidase inhibitor.
In 2002 Takeda reported global sales of $ 1,240m for Actos, an increase of 28.9% from $962m in 2001. The company's co-promotion partner in the US, Eli Lilly, recorded revenues of $437m. Sales of Actos in Japan rose by 24.6% to S76m.
Actos is in direct competition with GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK.) Avandia (rosiglitazone), which was launched in June 1999 and achieved annual sales growth of 14.4% to $l,214m in 2002. The once-daily formulations of the two drugs appear to have similar efficacy. However, Avandia has the option of a higher, twice-daily dose, which significantly lowers blood sugar levels compared with Actos, although administration of Avandia can increase cholesterol levels. In October 2002, GSK also received approval for Avandamet, a combination pill of Avandia and metformin.
A key factor that will influence the success of Actos will be the outlook for glitazones within the overall diabetes market over the next six years. While the total diabetes market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.7% between 2001 and 2007 to $20bn, glitazones are expected to outperform many of the older drug classes. One of the key factors that may limit growth of all oral antidiabetic therapies will be the emergence of new delivery routes for insulin. The use of insulin at early stages of diabetes therapy is considered desirable by many physicians but has been limited in the past by the need for non-patient-friendly injectable regimens. With the advent of inhaled and oral insulin formulations, potentially from 2005, the use of oral antidiabetic therapies may be slightly curtailed by the earlier use of insulin.
Sales of Actos are forecast to rise to $ 1,406m in 2003 and $ 1,573m in 2005 before declining to $870m in 2008 as US sales are affected by generic competition.